Saturday, October 20, 2007

What a web of lies we weave, when first we practice to deceive.

Readers may recall the reports from Iraq's propaganda machine during the war between Saddam and the coalition forces that ended with total defeat of the Iraqi Republican National Guard, despite constant reports of victory.

It seems Iran may have hired a relative of that propagandist.

"11,000 Rockets a Minute" (link)

That's the claim by Iran's propagandists. They claim that if Iran is attack they will fire 11,000 rockets within a minute at enemy bases, and "This volume and speed of firing would continue." It's a wholly incredible claim. There are no enemy bases close to Iran.

Long range rockets cost money, long range rockets that are capable of targeting and harming military installations cost considerably more money. Nevertheless, let's suppose that each rocket costs only $100.

Firing 11,000 rockets per minute would cost $1,100,000 per minute. There are 60 minutes in an hour, and about 12 hours of daylight. That's a cost of more than $700 Million a day or more than $4 Billion a week, assuming only daylight missions and taking off one day a week.

Iran may be rich, but there is no way that such a volume and speed of rocket attacks is credible.

And frankly, the cost of $100 is way too low. By way of comparison a FIM-92 Stinger Missile (surface-to-air, portable, infra-red homing) costs more than $30,000 per unit. If we figure that there is a good chunk of markup in that for Raytheon, we could still more accurately estimate the cost of a single rocket at $10,000.

That would increase the first minute cost to $100 Million, they daily cost to $70 Billion and the weekly cost to over $400 Billion.

The GDP of Iran is about $600 Billion.

Moral: Don't lie. If the propagandists had provided reasonable information, it could be believed. These lies are likely simply to make the world think Iran is hiding nuclear weapons and provoke a coalition attack.